ABOUT

AI MULTIPLY.

We are dedicated to advancing healthcare through innovative research and cutting-edge AI technology. Our goal is to unravel the complexities of pharmacy and disease clustering across life-course.

 

Using artificial intelligence (AI) to characterise the dynamic inter-relationships between MUltiple Long-term condiTIons and PoLYpharmacy and across diverse UK populations and inform health care pathways (AI-MULTIPLY).


OUR JOURNEY

In 2021, the consortium was awarded a NIHR development award to investigate artificial intelligence for multiple long-term conditions (AIM).

Since gaining the award, the consortium established collaborations within the AIM community, connected with patients and the public, and explored data engineering methods to best investigate the data.

 

Following the success of the consortium, AI MULTIPLY applied to become a Research Collaborative as part of the NIHR Artificial Intelligence for Multiple Long-Term Conditions (AIM) call, funded by the UKRI Medical Research Council Strategic Priorities Fund.

In 2022 we were successful in being awarded further funding to expand on the research carried out within the development award.

This funding has allowed AI MULTIPLY to delve deeper into the research started in the development award and better understand the relationships between multiple long-term conditions, polypharmacy, personal and social factors to optimise treatment for individual patients.

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WHO WE ARE

The AI MULTIPLY consortium brings together researchers across a number of universities, the NHS and Social Action for Health.

 

We are a Research Collaborative which has been awarded funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) to investigate the use of artificial intelligence for multimorbidity and polypharmacy.

OUR PARTNERS

We are strengthened by partnerships with leading institutions dedicated to advancing healthcare research and innovation.

Our Mission

“Using the collective expertise of patients, clinicians, researchers and artificial intelligence to improve the care of people who live with many health conditions and medicines”

 

Our VISION AND AIMS

Using artificial intelligence (AI) to characterise the dynamic inter-relationships between polypharmacy and multiple long-term conditions across diverse UK populations and inform health care pathways.

 

People who live with a number of medical conditions (multiple long-term conditions or MLTCs) are at high risk of poor health. They are often prescribed multiple medicines.  When the number of medicines is greater than five, this is called polypharmacy.  The relationship between MLTCs and polypharmacy is complex and not well understood.

 

We know that some patients enter a downward spiral, developing an increasing number of conditions and being prescribed more and more medicines.

 

This can cause health problems, as individual medicines may interact with one another or have side-effects.  Other medicines may modify the downward spiral by preventing the development of conditions such as heart disease and cancer.  All of this makes it difficult to design interventions to ensure medicines are prescribed in combinations that do more good than harm.

 

Our long-term goal is to better understand the dynamic relationship between MLTCs and polypharmacy, to optimise the medicines prescribed for individual patients.  This research will also identify key points for intervention, to maintain the best possible health trajectory for people with MLTCs.

 

Our team

Our group is made up of experts across a range of fields: from research specialists who are experts in the data science field to clinicians with years of experience treating patients. Regardless of their background, each member of the consortium is dedicated to using AI and machine learning to develop strategies for prevention and improved management of multiple long term conditions.

Professor Nick Reynolds – Project Lead

Professor of Dermatology and Director of Diagnostics at Newcastle University and a practising clinician at Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

Prof Nick Reynolds will co-lead the project with Prof Mike Barnes, building on their successful cross-disciplinary working relationship/leadership roles in AiM development award, PSORT and related projects. Reynolds will chair the Management Committee, and with support from Barnes and the project manager, will direct and coordinate the work of the consortium. Reynolds will directly contribute to Theme 2, 3 (AI methods and interpretation respectively) providing clinical/ pharmaco-epidemiological expertise and insight into informatics and AI.

Based on previous experience of stakeholder and PPIE engagement, Reynolds will directly contribute to cross-cutting PPIE theme and lead on building wider collaborative relationships.

Professor Michael R Barnes – Project Lead

Professor of Bioinformatics and Director of the Centre for Translational Bioinformatics at Queen Mary’s University London

Prof Barnes coordinates technical and analytical objectives across sites for Theme 1-2 as chair of the data engineering and AI team, building on successful weekly data engineering team meetings in the development consortium. He will lead WP1 planning data engineering requirements, from discovery to replication across environments ranging from HPC/GPU clusters suitable for anonymised data to ISO27001 infrastructure with AI capacity. His team will also continue to evaluate new AI technologies, e.g. in the implementation of Bursty Dynamics in healthcare. He will also integrate with other NIHR Infrastructure (BRCs, HIC), HDR-UK and the Turing Health Programme to promote excellence in AI.

Work package 1 & 2

 

DATA ACCESS, DATA WRANGLING, DATA ENGINEERING/

AI FOR MLTC AND POLYPHARMACY CLUSTERS, TIME COURSE AND TRAJECTORIES

Professor Michael R Barnes – Work Package Lead

Professor of Bioinformatics and Director of the Centre for Translational Bioinformatics (Queen Mary’s University London)

Prof Barnes coordinates technical and analytical objectives across sites for Theme 1-2 as chair of the data engineering and AI team, building on successful weekly data engineering team meetings in the development consortium. He will lead WP1 planning data engineering requirements, from discovery to replication across environments ranging from HPC/GPU clusters suitable for anonymised data to ISO27001 infrastructure with AI capacity. His team will also continue to evaluate new AI technologies, e.g. in the implementation of Bursty Dynamics in healthcare. He will also integrate with other NIHR Infrastructure (BRCs, HIC), HDR-UK and the Turing Health Programme to promote excellence in AI.

Professor Paolo Missier – Work Package Lead

Professor of Computer and Data Science in the School of Computer Science (University of Birmingham)

Professor Paolo Missier will contribute his expertise in data science including: data selection, preparation, integration, and use in machine learning with applications to health care research. As co-lead for workpackage 1 and 2, he will contribute particularly in data analysis, the methodology for extracting actionable knowledge from cohorts datasets, and driving technical development. He will supervise the PDRAs and technicians working within workpackage 1 and 2 at Newcastle University.

Dr Rafael Henkin

Postdoctoral Researcher/Data Engineer

Dr Rafael Henkin is a postdoctoral researcher at Queen Mary University of London and has a background in computer science. He is responsible for the data engineering processes in WP 1 and 2. He is experienced in working with CPRD GOLD and Aurum and setting up workflows in WP 1 and 2 to help the rest of the team perform analysis in big datasets. He also develops interactive tools using Python, R and JavaScript, such as data portals, to facilitate internal and external communication.

John Casement

Experimental Scientific Officer (Newcastle University)

John is an Experimental Scientific Officer with 11 years’ experience providing Bioinformatics support to staff and researchers at Newcastle University. In addition to the AI-Multiply project he has also provided support on the UKPSSR Sjogren’s syndrome project led by Wan-Fai Ng & the PSORT project led by Nick Reynolds. He is experienced in analysis of data from a wide range of high-throughput sequencing techniques including RNA-Seq, ChIP-Seq, WES and targeted sequencing, and is a key player in the Bioinformatics Support Unit’s provision of Bioinformatics training courses.

Rebeen Hamad

Research Associate Health Data (Newcastle University)

Dr. Rebeen Ali Hamad is a machine learning researcher with a strong background in developing advanced predictive models and self-supervised learning techniques. His expertise spans diverse applications, including healthcare analytics, human activity recognition, and natural language processing. Rebeen’s work focuses on building scalable, interpretable AI frameworks to solve real-world challenges, particularly in multidisciplinary research settings. Passionate about innovation and impactful problem-solving, he combines technical proficiency with a collaborative approach to advancing machine learning applications across domains.

Alisha Angdembe

Researcher / Data Scientist (Queen Mary’s University London)

Alisha Angdembe is a Data Scientist and Researcher at the William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary, University of London, and a key member of Queen Mary’s Digital Environment Research Institute (DERI). Since 2021, Alisha has been an active member of the AI-Multiply consortium, leveraging her expertise in analysing large-scale electronic health record (EHR) datasets to explore long-term conditions and the complexities of polypharmacy. As part of this collaborative project, Alisha works closely with the interdisciplinary team of healthcare professionals, clinicians, and domain experts to ensure the research is impactful and grounded in real-world applications. She regularly presents complex findings and updates at team meetings. Alisha remains deeply engaged in ongoing research projects, contributing to the consortium’s mission to advance healthcare through data-driven solutions.

Dr Miriam Samuel

NIHR Academic Clinical (Queen Mary’s University London)

Dennis Lendrem

Associate Clinical Researcher (Newcastle University)

Kieran Richards

Research Associate (University of Edinburgh)

Dr Kieran Richards is a postdoctoral researcher at the School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh and has a background in statistical research. Having joined AI-MULTIPLY in 2023, he contributes his statistical expertise to the team and works to develop longitudinal models for multimorbidity and polypharmacy with an emphasis on understanding the uncertainty in these areas. This involves developing novel methods, and applying them to large scale Electronic Health Records (EHR) datasets.

Work package 3

 

TOWARDS INTERPRETATION AND CLINICAL DECISION MAKING

Dr Dexter Canoy – Work Package Lead

Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology and Public Health (Newcastle University)

Dexter Canoy is Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology and Public Health at Newcastle University. His research interests include investigating determinants of population health and cardiovascular disease using large-scale biomedical data as discovery tools. He explores questions relating to healthy ageing, women’s health, and health inequalities. He contributes to several research collaborations involving the application of artificial intelligence to characterise the dynamics of multimorbidity and polypharmacy in the AI-Multiply and characterise eye images to help understand ageing of the brain, neurodegenerative disease and glaucoma (OCTAHEDRON). He is also involved in a global consortium pooling individual patient-level data to investigating stratified effects of antihypertensive drugs (BPLTTC).

Professor Barbara Hanratty – Work Package Lead

Professor of Primary Care and Public Health (Newcastle University)

Professor Barbara Hanratty will co-lead work package 3 and support patient and public involvement work, contributing expertise in mixed methods and older adult care, overseeing the work of the qualitative researcher, and bringing insights from general practice. As lead for the Multimorbidity research theme in the Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, she will provide links to a network of interested practitioners and commissioners to support development and implementation of findings.

Dr Soraia Sousa – Work Package Lead

Mental Health Lead. Honorary Clinical Senior Lecturer (Newcastle University)

Soraia Sousa is a Consultant in Liaison Psychiatry and an Honorary Clinical Senior Lecturer at Newcastle University. She is interested in the interface of mental and physical health conditions and big data analysis and co-leads mental health within work package 3. She provides mental health expertise to inform study design, data interpretation and guide the direction of trial emulations.

Professor Hamish McAlister- Williams

Professor of Affective Disorders (Newcastle University)

Professor McAllister-Williams will lead mental health within workpackage 3, providing psychiatric and psychopharmacology expertise to study design and data interpretation, and supporting the study as Deputy Medical Director for Research (CNTW mental health Trust) facilitating access to the CRIS system for interrogating electronic records. He will co-ordinate an informal group to provide expertise in severe mental illness, mood disorders and anxiety, and liaison psychiatry; mental health pharmacy; and representing East London and North East England.

Professor John Isaacs – Work Package Lead

Inflammation Lead. Professor of Clinical Rheumatology (Newcastle University)

Professor John Isaacs will lead the inflammation research sub-theme of workpackage 3, seeking evidence for an impact of inflammation and anti-inflammatory therapies on the subsequent emergence of multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) and polypharmacy. He will seek signals of unrecognised interactions between drug classes which may contribute to MLTC-M and polypharmacy.

Dr Alex Thompson

NIHR ARC NENC Mental Health and Ageing Fellow (Newcastle University)

‘Dr Alexandra Thompson is a post-doctoral research fellow based at Newcastle University. Alex has two roles. She is evaluation lead for the cross cutting PPIE theme, responsible for collecting data linked to the implementation, process and outcomes of public involvement within AI-Multiply. These findings are used to shape and improve PPIE across all work packages and will be used to create guidance for PPIE within similar AI and Big Data Projects.

 

Alex is also responsible for conducting qualitative research for WP3. Here she collects and analyses data in the form of in-depth interviews with individuals living with multiple long-term conditions and taking multiple medications. The focus of this work is on uncovering perceptions of influences on health and health care trajectories’.

Simon Walker

Research and Development Informatics Project Co-Ordinator (CNTW)

Work package 4

 

SOCIAL SCIENCE INVESTIGATION OF INTERDISCIPLINARY ENTANGLEMENTS

Professor Deborah Swinglehurst – Work Package Lead

Professor of Primary Care, NIHR Clinician Scientist – (Queen Mary’s University London)

Professor Deborah Swinglehurst leads work package 4 with Dr Megan Clinch. She provides intellectual and methodological steer and line manages the post-doctoral social scientist leading the field work (Duncan Reynolds).  She is supporting qualitative data collection, theory development and analysis, working with the WP4 team on the design and delivery of regular interdisciplinary reflexive workshops which engage the wider consortium. As a GP she engages actively in regular Data Engineering meetings, Polypharmacy Whiteboard sessions and other interdisciplinary meetings, offering an expert generalist perspective on MLTC and polypharmacy. Deborah delivered a seminar on the contribution of ethnography to MLTC research in the AIM Research Support Facility seminar series early 2024.

Dr Megan Clinch – Work Package Lead

Senior Lecturer in Medicine and Society (Queen Mary’s University London)

Dr Megan Clinch co-leads work package 4 with Professor Deborah Swinglehurst. With Deborah she supports the work package 4 postdoctoral researcher, Duncan Reynolds, to conduct an ethnographic study of the interdisciplinary working practices that constitute AI MULTIPLY. These findings are then used to inform reflexive workshops for the AIM team, which provide productive spaces for them to consider the many knowledge making styles they collectively bring to the project. So far, these workshops have helped to shed light on the values, practicalities, tensions, and aspirations that are shaping the work of the AI-MULTIPLY team. These activities will eventually contribute to a better understanding and theorisation of how successful interdisciplinary working can be established when developing Artificial Intelligence for healthcare.

Duncan Reynolds

Research Associate (Queen Mary’s University London)

Dr Duncan Reynolds is the post-doctoral researcher responsible for data collection on work package 4. This involves Duncan undertaking ethnographic observations of interdisciplinary meetings across the AI-Multiply project and carrying out interviews with team members. Guided by the ongoing analysis, selected extracts of the data he gathers are used as a basis for interactive reflexive workshops which are delivered regularly with the wider consortium throughout the project. These occasions draw attention to how everyone in the project is working together to create ‘AI-in-health’ technologies. Duncan has presented findings from this work at the Oxford Global Bio Ethics and the European Association for the Study of Science and Technology (EASST) conferences, as well as the AIM Conference, and to PPIE groups.

Work package 5

 

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE OUTCOMES: TRANSLATION INTO PRACTICE

Professor James Wason – Work Package Lead

Professor of Biostatistics (Newcastle University)

Professor James Wason will co-lead WP5 (Health and social care outcomes: translation into practice) and will manage the PDRA focused on trial emulation and subsequent design of prospective trials. He is an internally recognised trials methodologist and is beginning a NIHR Research Professorship in late 2021. The planned research in the RP, including use of routinely collected data to emulate trials and design prospective pragmatic trials is highly aligned with this collaborative grant.

Professor Adam Todd – Work Package Lead

Professor of Pharmaceutical Public Health (Newcastle University)

Professor Adam Todd will co-lead workpackage 5 as an experienced pharmacist and with expertise in “deprescribing” and managing patients with complex polypharmacy. He leads a programme of work exploring how pharmaceutical care can be used more appropriately in different populations, and is also interested how inequalities in pharmaceutical care can be addressed. He will support interpretation of the research findings and dissemination to ensure the programme of research is embedded in meaningful clinical practice.

Professor Neil Watson – Work Package Lead

Director of Innovation (Newcastle University)

Neil Watson is a Professor of Practice at the Faculty of Medical Sciences at Newcastle University and Director of Innovation at Newcastle Hospitals. He has extensive experience in both Medicines Optimisation and clinical informatics. He will contribute to the interpretation of the results from the machine learning AI modelling, specifically in relation to polypharmacy and prescription practice. He will co-lead workpackage 5 to further support the translation of data analysis findings into clinical practice.

Dr Ellen Moss

Research Associate in Biostatistics (Newcastle University)

Dr Ellen Moss is a postdoctoral researcher on WP5. She is an applied statistician with a background in biology. She also has lived experience of polypharmacy, long-term conditions, and being disabled. Ellen is responsible for conducting trial emulations, which involves using electronic health records from primary and secondary care to mimic clinical trials. These trial emulations will address treatment questions relating to long-term conditions and polypharmacy and some will be co-designed with the PPIE group.

Cross-Cutting

 

INEQUALITIES

Dr Vanessa Apea

Consultant physician in Genito-urinary and HIV medicine (Barts Health and NHS Trust)

Dr Vanessa Apea is a consultant physician in Sexual Health/HIV with expertise in access to healthcare by marginalised groups and implementing complex interventions in clinical settings. She has an established track record of utilising community participatory approaches to exploring health inequalities, particularly at the intersection of race and gender. Vanessa is also the deputy academic lead for equality, diversity and inclusion at QMUL’s school of medicine. She will be leading the cross-cutting ‘Inequalities’ theme.

Cross-Cutting

 

PATIENT AND PUBLIC  INVOLVEMENT AND ENGAGEMENT

Olivia Grant

PPIE lead and lay member co-applicant

Olivia Grant, OBE, DL, will contribute as a lay member, chairing the Steering Committee and will lead on PPIE and wider engagement. She has extensive experience chairing high-level boards, including Chair of Newcastle University (2002-2011), Board member (1995 -1998) then Vice Chair Newcastle Building Society (1998 to 2008) and over 30 years’ experience meeting with and consulting public bodies (e.g. local councils). Chair of Culture North East (2002-10) She was also the main carer for her late husband who experienced the health problems of multimorbidity and polypharmacy.

Victoria Bartle

PPIE lay member (North East and North Cumbria ARC and Fuse)

Victoria’s background is in retail, hospitality and welfare to work management and training. She has lived experience of being disabled, accessing primary, secondary and social care for herself and as a carer for a friend. She has been involved in PPIE work since leaving employment in 2016 due to the impact of multiple long term health conditions and polypharmacy.

She is leading on the PPIE design, delivery and evaluation ensuring a focus on public involvement in all aspects of the study from each decision and discussion to potential implementation and future research plans.

“I love being involved in research and believe that including the patient perspective is essential in ensuring research can truly benefit the people that it is designed to help. It also helps me by making me feel that I am contributing to society when I am unable to go back to my previous employment due to my health conditions..”

Dave Taylor

PPIE lay member

Dave is a patient representative contributing to research projects on multiple long-term conditions, polypharmacy and AI. He has lived with several long-term conditions since his teenage years. He was formerly Vice Chair for the Patients Association and has written for Springer on the Patient’s Perspective on AI in Medicine. He is the patient lead on the RSM’s digital health council, holds an honorary fellowship with Imperial’s Institute for Security Science and Technology and is a public member for an NIHR PGfAR funding committee.

Susan Mountain

PPIE lay member

Susan has lived with many long-term conditions and enjoys sharing her experience with researchers as a public contributor.  She is an avid campaigner to help with a smokefree 2030 and has spoken several times in Parliament and been involved in many smoking researches.   She is passionate about helping research and is on the programme board for the new Secure Data Environment (SDE) for North East and North Cumbria and hoping to be part of the Data Access Committee for the SDE.  To relax she likes to do cold water swimming.

Fiona Cammack

PPIE Lay member

Alex Thompson

PPIE member – Post-doctoral research fellow,  Newcastle University

Dr Alexandra Thompson is a post-doctoral research fellow based at Newcastle University. Alex has two roles. She is evaluation lead for the cross cutting PPIE theme, responsible for collecting data linked to the implementation, process and outcomes of public involvement within AI-Multiply. These findings are used to shape and improve PPIE across all work packages and will be used to create guidance for PPIE within similar AI and Big Data Projects.

 

Alex is also responsible for conducting qualitative research for WP3. Here she collects and analyses data in the form of in-depth interviews with individuals living with multiple long-term conditions and taking multiple medications. The focus of this work is on uncovering perceptions of influences on health and health care trajectories.

Naveed Saba

Project Manager (Newcastle University)

Duncan Reynolds

PPIE member – QMUL

Dr Duncan Reynolds is the post-doctoral researcher responsible for data collection on workpackage 4. This involves Duncan undertaking ethnographic observations of interdisciplinary meetings on the project and carrying out interviews with team members. Duncan is closely involved with the PPIE group and has assisted in the PPIE design and delivery within the project. His work on the study’s Mission Statement was an opportunity to bring together the main PPIE group and contributors working with SAfH for a hybrid workshop to finalise the Mission Statement and ensure that it was understandable to the public and reflected the aims of the project and our goal for patient benefit. 

Lizzie Remfry

PhD Student (QMUL)

Lizzie is third year PhD candidate involved in WP1 and WP2. She is a mixed methods researcher, and her research looks at how we can build AI algorithms with members of the public and clinicians. In AI-MULTIPLY she helped develop accessible workshops to support the involvement and engagement from members of the public who are not normally involved in research. She also designed and delivered training on AI to the PPIE groups, and supported the development of early career research sessions, where ECR’s can book appointments to get feedback from and interact with the PPIE group.

Ceri Durham

CEO – Social Action for Health (SAfH)

Ceri Durham will contribute as a lay member through her role at Social Action for Health. She has extensive experience of contributing to research both in her personal and professional capacity. She has particular knowledge and expertise in encouraging and up-skilling others who are traditionally far away from academic discussion and policy decision-making, to have a “voice at the table”.

Grainne Colligan

Community Lead – Social Action for Health (SAfH)

Grainne Colligan is Programmes Manager at Social Action for Health and has previous experience working in medical research and as a Practice nurse in General Practice in Hackney, East London. As someone who understands clinical, research and community environments she works to bring people from these different environments together in an equal and meaningful way to facilitate learning for everyone.